Unit 1
On-Chain Signals Used by Crypto Whales
This unit explains the on-chain metrics whales actually pay attention to, separating meaningful signals from noise. Focus: wallet behavior, exchange flows, and long-term capital movements.
Whale Signal Filtering Model
The goal is not more data. The goal is relevant data. This model helps you separate actionable signals from misleading indicators.
Actionable signals
- Behavioral consistency across time (not a single spike).
- Context alignment with market structure (range, breakout, capitulation).
- Supply movement that changes liquidity, not vanity metrics.
Misleading indicators
- Single-event spikes without follow-through.
- Unlabeled entities that look like whales (exchange, custodian, internal shuffles).
- Correlation traps (metric up therefore price up).
Core Signals Whales Watch
Signal 1
Wallet Behavior
Track repeatable patterns across time: accumulation phases, distribution phases, dormancy breaks, and address behavior that looks strategic vs operational.
- Prefer clusters and repeated cycles over isolated transfers.
- Classify intent: building a position, reducing risk, or custody movement.
Signal 2
Exchange Flows
Inflows and outflows matter when they change sell pressure, tradable liquidity, or the market’s ability to absorb size.
- Inflow spikes are risk flags, not automatic sell signals.
- Outflows can be cold storage, rebalancing, or custody migration.
Signal 3
Long-Term Capital Movements
The serious edge is supply shifting between tradable and held. This reveals longer cycle intent and capital rotation.
- Prefer time-weighted behavior (weeks/months) over hourly noise.
- Watch liquidity compression and distribution windows near key levels.
The 10-Second Whale Filter
Entity clarity: do you know what the address is?
Timeframe: stable trend or one-off spike?
Context: does it match the market phase?
Liquidity impact: does tradable supply change?
Follow-through: repeated behavior or nothing after?
Assessment and Dashboard
Scenario-based assessment. Graded with a USA letter grade (A-F). Results are saved and accumulate into your investor profile.
Dashboard
Signal Filtering Performance
Tip: the best answers show entity clarity, timeframe discipline, and liquidity impact - not prediction.
Assessment
Scenario Quiz
FAQ
Do exchange inflows always mean a dump is coming?
No. Inflows can be custody movement, collateral management, or internal shuffles. Treat inflows as a risk flag that needs context and follow-through.
What is the biggest mistake in on-chain analysis?
Overreacting to single transfers. Whales reveal intent through patterns and repetition, not one dramatic transaction.
What does the filtering model optimize for?
Entity clarity, timeframe confirmation, and liquidity impact - while rejecting correlation traps.